Risk Assessment to inform Coastal Adaptation - How well are we doing?     — YRD

Risk Assessment to inform Coastal Adaptation - How well are we doing?     (2783)

David Wainwright 1 , Danielle Verdon-Kidd 1
  1. University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia

The adaptation of coastal settlements to rising sea levels, storm surge, erosion and low land flooding in coastal areas is a challenge for coming decades. In Australia, much of the risk is borne by Local Councils who have front line responsibility for land use planning and manage considerable infrastructure and assets.    A Council’s decisions need to be defensible. Their predicament is unenviable, given the degree of uncertainty as climate change evolves and political pressures which must be balanced. It is important that Councils have access to a sound and accepted method for assessing the risk posed by sea level rise so appropriate decisions can be made regarding how and whento adapt   NCCARF is developing a Coastal Climate Risk Management Tool that will assist Councils in making defensible decisions in the face of future climate change.  The research being reported here has looked at the way coastal vulnerability, impact and risk assessment studies have been undertaken in Australia over the past decade, using a sample of more than 30 projects.   We ask: "How well do we do risk assessment?" with reference to the International Standard for Risk Management (ISO 31000).  Using guidance from past experience and insights from targeted interviews at a few locations of particular interest around the coast, we have subsequently formulated a framework for undertaking coastal risk assessment, noting the importance of clearly establishing, a priori, the risk context and robust stakeholder engagement.  We then recommend a suite of techniques for risk identification, analysis and assessment.