Is climate change responsible for dwindling family farm numbers in the Western Australian Wheatbelt? (2967)
The Western Australian (WA) Wheatbelt has experienced some of the most severe and abrupt climate change in Australia. Since the 1970s, winter rainfall has diminished by more than 20 per cent, while seasonal conditions (rainfall and temperature) have become increasingly variable and extreme. Over the same period, the number of farm establishments in operation throughout the region has fallen from 13,106 in 1970 to 4,941 in 2013 – an almost three-fold decline. At a national scale, farm loss trends are often attributed to socio-economic factors, such as macroeconomic reform and technological change, while overlooking environmental drivers such as anthropogenic climate change. In response, this research employed a ‘resilience analysis’ that explored how climate change has interacted with other socio-ecological factors to drive transformations in the social and economic structure of the WA Wheatbelt. Data collection included 15 semi-structured interviews performed with agricultural and industry experts, as well as data collected from various secondary sources (e.g. economic data, climate data, archival records and news media). Drawing upon Holling’s four-phase adaptive cycle, research findings indicate that climate change, in combination with other economic and social factors, has pushed the Wheatbelt socio-ecological system towards a state of low resilience, thus exposing family farmers to heightened production and financial risks that undermine their long-term viability. Considering that climate change is projected to worsen significantly in the Wheatbelt region, it is argued that family farm loss will continue unabated unless transformational adaptation strategies are successfully pursued and employed.