Characterising resilience in New Zealand pastoral farming systems: an indicators-based approach (2643)
There is increasing evidence of more frequent and severe climate change-related extreme events in New Zealand. These events are likely to have adverse effects on a range of primary economic activities, including pastoral farming. In addition, an increase in climate variability can result in greater operating uncertainty for a sector dependent on consistent climatic conditions. Using a deductive-inductive approach, we identified three aspects of resilience related to the capacity of pastoral farming to manage current and anticipated climatic risks: resistance – the degree to which a farm is exposed to risk, latitude – the capacity to respond, and precariousness – movement towards thresholds. Based on our findings, we then developed an indicators-based framework, which was tested and refined through stakeholder consultation and economic modelling. Results of the analysis, our methodology and indicators-framework provide new insight into the vulnerability of sheep and beef farmers in New Zealand, as well as helping to inform further discussion and debate about the validity of ‘measuring’ resilience. The framework can help support the pastoral farming sector identify system vulnerabilities and risks, and develop and support specific adaptation or resilience-building strategies. Furthermore, the study provides a useful template for cross-sector comparison. The characterisation of resilient farm-systems also has the potential to contribute to broader sustainability frameworks for agriculture.