In response to uncertain future climate change and socio-economic developments, planners are advised to develop adaptive plans. These aim to achieve objectives under a wide range of futures and can be adapted in response to how the future unfolds. One way to develop adaptive plans is to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. This talk presents and discusses different ways to achieve this based on early applications of the pathways approach.

Pathways can be developed a) by exploring (combinations of) actions in case the system starts to perform unacceptably using so-called thresholds or adaptation tipping points, b) through narratives, and simulation gaming, and d) computationally through the use of multi-objective robust optimization and agent based modelling. Adaptation tipping points can be identified through (a) a sensitivity analysis or expert judgment, (b) a semi-static impact assessment, and (c) by impact assessment with transient scenarios. To draw a pathways map, the Pathways Generator tool has been developed. This tool has been successfully used in stakeholder workshops to discuss staged decision making under dynamic uncertain change. It not only supports exploration of short term actions and long term options, but can also be used to proceed systematically through the different steps of a dynamic policy analysis.