Increasing global population and consumption are placing unprecedented demands on agricultural production and the use of natural resources. Agriculture has already displaced substantial areas of natural ecosystems resulting in species loss and biodiversity declines. Competing land uses are influenced by changing climate and market conditions, which makes planning for adaptation extremely challenging.
In the Mediterranean type climate regions of southern Australia, such as the Eyre Peninsula (EP), climate change projections fairly consistently indicate warmer temperatures accompanied by a decrease in rainfall. Rainfall in these regions is already the most limiting factor for crop growth. In addition to affecting crop production, rainfall reliability also influences species distributions.

The purpose of this presentation is to demonstrate the application of the Landscape Futures Analysis Tool (LFAT) to the EP NRM region using a series of climate, market and biodiversity scenarios. The outputs are used to suggest planning responses to facilitate successful adaptation through land use changes. The LFAT allows users to investigate alternative future scenarios to understand likely outcomes and develop options for planning purposes rather than generate an arbitrary optimised land use configuration. An example output indicates that with a moderate warmer and drier climate, the area used for carbon sequestration will increase in all rainfall zones and it will not displace wheat in the lowest rainfall areas. In addition, weed populations will change and there will be greater competition between conservation and agricultural production priorities in the medium to high rainfall areas.