Planning an adaptation mix as part of an adaptation pathway: an application to shy albatross of southern Australia (2689)
Evidence of population declines as a result of climate change is particularly concerning for threatened and endangered species. Iconic species will continue to attract conservation attention, and under climate change, intervention may be required to help populations persist. We have previously identified a range of adaptation options for one iconic species, the shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta), which breeds only in Tasmania. Testing of options has begun, yet the albatross population responses will take time to become measurable. In the meantime, we can test the potential effectiveness of the options using population models. We have developed an age-, stage-, and sex-structured model of the shy albatross population that includes non-climate stressors (fisheries bycatch) and environmental variation (rainfall, sea surface height, and air temperature). The model allows relationships to be established with environmental factors that can be projected into the future under various climate change scenarios and alternative adaptation options. Potential adaptation options include wind breaks, translocations, artificial nests, reducing disease and reducing bycatch from fisheries. Each option will vary in its magnitude of benefit and act upon different components of the population demographics (through chick, juvenile or adult survival, and breeding success). We show how the model can estimate the degree to which each of these options improves population status. Combinations of options may be necessary to provide satisfactory population rebuilding. We illustrate how models such as this can assist conservation managers when faced with making difficult decisions regarding the sustainability of species threatened by climate change.