An analogue approach to climate change simulations for a post mining landscape — YRD

An analogue approach to climate change simulations for a post mining landscape (2840)

Danielle C Verdon-Kidd , Gregory Hancock , John Lowry

The ability to predict the stability of post-mining landscapes is a critical element in the assessment of closure designs for uranium mines. Landscape Evolution Modelling (LEM) technologies provide a means by which it is possible to simulate the long-term geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform. However, simulations rarely consider the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change and consequently run the risk of not accounting for the range of rainfall variability that might be expected in the future. One issue is that high resolution rainfall projections are required to run climate change scenarios within LEMs, which in many cases is not available. A second issue is that projections of rainfall changes are still highly uncertain for regions of Australia (such as the Northern Territory, NT) where a decrease or an increase in rainfall is equally likely. In this study, we adopt an analogue approach to downscale the projected changes of rainfall (where the future climate of the target location is matched to the current climate of another site, the analogue site).  The rainfall scenarios are then used as an input to the  CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to model the geomorphic stability of a conceptual rehabilitated landform  of the Ranger uranium mine in the NT for a simulated period of 100 years. Initial model results  have provided a guide as to where large-scale erosion may potentially occur on the landform. Incorporating these rainfall scenarios into landform modelling has the capacity to both improve landform design and enhance the modelling software.