Queensland fruit fly (Qfly) is a native Australian species that was originally endemic to Queensland and perhaps northern New South Wales. Commercial fruit production has resulted in the distribution of Qfly spreading to all eastern states. Horticulture production was protected by the formation of regional pest free areas to facilitate trade. These areas were based on a climate with hot, dry summers and cold winters which are less likely to support Qfly establishment that made eradication feasible. During recent years the Greater Sunraysia Pest Free Area (GSPFA) has experienced an increase in Qfly outbreaks during the growing seasons. A trend in a change in Australia’s climate has been observed since the year 2000 with increasing summer rainfall and declining winter rainfall. Such climatic conditions would enhance the suitability of horticulture productions regions in south-eastern Australia for Qfly and therefore the current and future potential distribution and abundance of Qfly was modelled using two global climate models (CSIRO-MK 3.0, MIROC-H) and A1B and A2 scenarios for emissions of greenhouse gases (SRES). The models indicate that potential future climates (2030, 2050, 2070 and 2080) are likely to result in a southern and eastern shift in the optimal suitability and an increase in abundance in those areas for Qfly. This shift will place horticulture production areas and in particular pest free areas under increasing pressure from Qfly and make the area wide management status potentially less viable requiring new control measures.