Future adaptation and mitigation in Australian and systems: land-use and sustainability under global change and domestic policy — YRD

Future adaptation and mitigation in Australian and systems: land-use and sustainability under global change and domestic policy (2501)

Brett A Bryan 1 , Jeff Connor 1 , Martin Nolan 1
  1. CSIRO, Urrbrae, SOUTH AUSTRALIA, Australia

The introduction of climate (e.g. a carbon market) and energy policy may provide significant opportunities for the widespread adoption of new land use and management options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation in agricultural landscapes. New land uses may include a range of bioenergy, carbon plantings, biodiverse plantings, and alternative crop and livestock management uses. However, these changes may generate collateral impacts for regional development, energy security, food production, land and water resources, biodiversity conservation, and other ecosystem services. We will present the outcomes of land use scenarios from the Land Use Trade-offs (LUTO) model—part of CSIROs Australian National Outlook. LUTO itself integrates a wide range of biophysical and economic data and models in a spatio-temporal model of potential land use change in Australia’s intensive agricultural zone out to 2050. The implications of policy options and changes in external drivers on land use and the impact on across a range of ecosystem services is assessed including food and fibre production, carbon, water, energy, and biodiversity. We analyse four global scenarios—one low emissions, two medium emissions, and one high emissions pathway. Model outcomes inform policymakers of the costs, benefits and trade-offs associated with specific policy directions under global change and other elements of deep uncertainty.