Ecosystems are expected to undergo large changes due to more-frequent extreme events in future, and hence there is an imperative to understand these changes and predict their ecological effects. Aridity and widespread droughts will increase in the next 30–90 years over many areas, resulting from either decreased precipitation and/or increased evaporation. These more intense events will add stress to natural rangeland systems that support human food production. Drylands, which include most rangelands, are water-limited and operate differently in dry or wet years when episodic pulses of resources drive increases in productivity. Many of the processes that affect productivity (e.g. drought, grazing, fire) may also act synergistically to produce unforeseen outcomes for global vegetation models.

In the Simpson Desert, with its highly unpredictable climate, rainfall and temperature extremes have varied over the last 100 years, but in regionally different ways. Evidence from our long-term studies of flora and fauna suggests that rain-driven pulses in productivity drive changes in animal populations and alter interactions among species. Responses occur over large spatial scales with lags of weeks to years, and also vary among functional groups; primary consumers peak before higher trophic levels (predators).

We use these results to highlight that because of the large extent (70% of Australia), and the resilience to past extremes, the continued function of healthy ecosystems in the outback is crucial to sustaining Australia’s economy and wellbeing.