Marine Projections for Natural Resource Management (NRM) regions of Australia — YRD

Marine Projections for Natural Resource Management (NRM) regions of Australia (3004)

Kathleen McInnes 1 , John Church 1 , Andrew Lenton 1 , Didier Monselesan 1 , Julian O'Grady 1 , Xuebin Zhang 1
  1. CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia

Coastal systems are particularly sensitive to changes in sea level, ocean temperature and ocean acidification (Wong et al., 2014). In Australia where the majority of the population resides in coastal cities and settlements, rising sea levels and associated coastal impacts are of considerable concern. In the marine environment, there is increasing evidence that ecosystems are already responding to changed climate conditions. Marine species have been observed further southwards in response to rising sea temperatures and some calcifying species are showing reduced rates of calcification.  The recent release of updated climate projections for Australia’s Natural (CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, 2015) is therefore timely in offering the most up-to-date and comprehensive projections for the coastal and marine environment to assist coastal managers and researchers to better understand and manage the anticipated future changes. The projections include spatially variable projections of sea level rise (SLR), sea surface temperature, ocean acidification and aragonite concentration. Sea level allowances are also provided, which give the height that present assets or their protective measures would need to be raised to ensure that the risk of exceedance of those levels in the future does not change from the present climate. The projections highlight that future changes are likely to be spatially heterogenous and the implications of this will be discussed. The talk will conclude with related emerging issues and future research priorities for the coastal zone.

  1. Wong P.-P., Losada I.J., Gattuso J.P., Hinkel J., Khattabi A., McInnes K.L., Saito Y., Sallenger A. (2014) Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas, Climate Change 2014:Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, (in press).
  2. CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, (2015) Climate Change in Australia Information for Australia’s Natural Resource Management Regions: Technical Report, CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, Australia