Where to now for coastal adaptation? (2953)
To help us identify useful next steps we have identified three waves in research and development in coastal climate adaptation. The first wave of studies focused on improving our understanding of the impact of climate change on coastal hazards and the consequences for the built and natural environment. These efforts sometimes involving limited benefit-cost analyses over longer time frames (e.g. until 2100). The second wave explicitly considered the timing of adaptation using a broader suite of economic and financial tools. These approaches seek to inform decision-making by taking into account the importance of path dependency and flexibility and can be characterised by a salient shift from information provision to decision support. The third, and current, wave of research has involved a greater focus on system thinking and the consideration of multiple scales, sectors, and jurisdictions, together with an emphasis on the importance of understanding how demographic change and economic decisions influence risk and adaptive capacity. Consistent with the challenges faced by proponents of Integrated Coastal Management, we find that there is limited evidence for the successful uptake of adaptation approaches that integrate climate adaptation into coastal planning. We argue that over the next 5-10 years a key focus should be should be placed on the clarification and resolution of the rules and responsibilities that govern climate adaptation.